Hurricane Lowell forecast: Watches likely as storm nears Hawaii

Hurricane Lowell continued its trek near the Hawaiian Islands Saturday, Sept. 5. The storm, a Category 4 with 145 mph winds, is forecast to approach the islands Monday night, Labor Day. The center of the hurricane is expected to move just west of the main Hawaiian Islands.

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The storm, now moving west-northwest at just 7 mph, is forecast to turn northwest by Saturday evening, then northward to north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed Sunday and Monday, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest update.

Lowell is expected to be “near major hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands,” the hurricane center said. A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph; Category 3, 4 and 5 storms are classified as major hurricanes.

“Any deviation eastward from its forecast track could bring more severe wind impacts, especially to Kauai County,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said. The National Hurricane Center said watches will likely be required for Kauai County and portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later Saturday.

Where is Hurricane Lowell now?

As of 11 a.m. Hawaii time on Sept. 5, the center of Lowell was about 635 miles south-southwest of Lihue on Kauai and 640 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, making it a Category 4 storm.

The hurricane briefly restrengthened to a Category 5 storm on Friday, Sept. 4, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend Sunday and Monday.

Lowell’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

How close will Lowell get to Hawaii?

The models are coming into better focus on Lowell’s path near the islands, the hurricane center said at 11 a.m. ET on Sept. 5.

Most of the model guidance suggests the center will travel 100 to 200 nautical miles to the west of Kauai on Sept. 7. However, because two of the models that have performed well for Lowell are along the eastern side of the guidance, the hurricane center nudged the track forecast slightly east.

Hawaii rainfall forecast for Lowell

“Heavy rainfall is likely to impact most islands at some point during Lowell’s passage,” said the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Rain is forecast across the south slopes of Maui and the Big Island as early as the evening of Sept. 6, followed by the rest of Maui County and Oahu on the morning of Sept. 7, and Kauai that afternoon.

Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible for Kauai and the Big Island, the hurricane center said. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible.

Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible.

This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. The weather service said the locally higher rain amounts are expected on south and southeast slopes.

Storm surge also expected

The combination of storm surge and tides could cause normally dry coastal areas to flood. The National Hurricane Center said water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground in Kauai County and up to a foot in Oahu, if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

The deepest water is expected along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge could be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Rough surf also expected

Swells from two storms are expected to affect the Hawaiian Islands over Sept. 5 and Sept. 6, and early in the week.

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Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Islands during the next several days. High surf advisories are in place for all south- and east-facing shores in Hawaii, as well as the west shore of the Big Island, under the influence of Lowell and Hurricane Karina.

Southerly swells from Lowell are forecast to bring high surf advisories to the islands through Saturday, Sept. 5, while Karina is producing high surf on east-facing shores.

The weather service said confidence is beginning to increase for the potential for extra-large surf along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding with monthly high tides, the surf will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances and channels, as well as coastal properties and roads.

As Karina disintegrates, an easterly swell from the gale from the remnants of former Hurricane Karina is expected through Sept. 6, with higher seas, winds and chances of rain on the night of Sept. 7 and on Sept. 8 as that gale moves through the area, the weather service said.

Track Lowell

Beware the right-front quadrant

The current projected path of Lowell shows it zooming to the north, likely impacting Kauai on Sept. 7. This will bring the storm’s right front quadrant toward Kauai.

Why is this important? “The winds, storm surge and even tornadic activity tend to be more extreme or prevalent in the right-front quadrant,” said University of Georgia meteorologist Marshall Shepherd recently in Forbes magazine.

This is because the storm’s forward motion adds to its rotating winds, producing the highest wind speeds and often the worst surge and tornado threat, according to Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.

What are the wind chances in the Hawaiian Islands?

The hurricane center’s current forecast indicates the following probabilities for tropical storm-force winds on Sept. 7 to Sept. 8. The wind chances increased with an eastward shift in the forecast Sept. 5.

• 84% – Nihoa (150 miles northwest of Kauai)
• 39% – Niihau
• 27% – Barking Sands (west side of Kauai)
• 15% – Lihue, Kauai

The island of Nihoa also has up to a 53% chance of 58-mph winds on Tuesday, Sept. 8, and a 32% chance of hurricane-force winds, while the chances for those higher winds on the outlying islands of Necker and Niihau are in the single digits.

Hurricane safety tips

This weekend would be a good time for Hawaii residents to review hurricane safety plans.

The weather service notes that storm surge and inland flooding remain the deadliest hurricane hazards and urged people to know their evacuation zone, follow evacuation orders and never drive on flooded roads. Several storm-related fatalities in 2026 have been linked to motorists attempting to cross flooded roadways.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also recommends assembling an emergency kit that includes at least three days of water (1 gallon per person per day), nonperishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, cash and a battery-powered or hand-cranked weather radio.

NOAA further advises having multiple ways to receive emergency warnings rather than relying solely on a cellphone. Options include weather radios, emergency alert systems, television and radio broadcasts, and trusted weather apps.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Lowell forecast: Watches likely as storm nears Hawaii

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Reporting by Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect

This story was originally published September 5, 2026 at 8:26 AM.