Optimism and tight polls: Can Florida Democrats flip Sunshine State blue in 2026?

Florida Democrats gathered in downtown Miami Saturday, a mere 44 days ahead of the midterm elections, with renewed optimism about their prospects of flipping the Sunshine State blue for the first time in decades. The surge in confidence follows recent poll results indicating close races in key contests for the governor’s mansion, congressional seats and the U.S. Senate.

Read more Optimism and tight polls: Can Florida Democrats flip Sunshine State blue in 2026?

Growing voter frustration with rising prices and strict immigration enforcement has fueled a demand for change, according to recent polls and surveys. At the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s Blue Gala featuring statewide candidates on the November ballot, speakers addressed the shifting dynamics and emphasized that Democrats can solve the state’s most pressing issues.

“We are the party of working people. We are the party that believes healthcare is a right, not a privilege. We are the party that will fight to raise wages and lower prices,” Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, said from the stage at the Phillip and Patricia Frost Museum of Science. “We are the party that is going to hold Donald Trump accountable next year for every lie.”

Democrats, particularly those running statewide races, face financial and structural disadvantages. Republicans have more money, a substantially larger voter base, control of every statewide office and supermajorities in the Florida House and Senate. But new polls, such as a September of 913 likely voters, show races for governor, U.S. Senate and attorney general nearly tied, with ballots already going out in the mail in some parts of the state and expected to hit Miami-Dade mailboxes by next weekend.

According to the survey, Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly is tied with U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a Republican from Naples, in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. And Jose Javier Rodriguez, the Democrat running for attorney general, has a chance to defeat James Uthmeier, whom DeSantis appointed to the job last year.

The Angie Nixon factor

Saturday’s event marked the first time Jolly and Nixon – who is running to oust Ashley Moody, appointed to the U.S. Senate by DeSantis – appeared together on the campaign trail.

Nixon, a progressive candidate, secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Florida by defeating Alex Vidman. Her surprising victory added to the national conversation about internal tension between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party.

Her association with the Democratic Socialists of America is a point of friction within the Florida Democratic top ticket, and Republican opponents are using it as a point of attack. But recent polling shows Nixon is galvanizing voters and is almost tied with Moody.

Jolly told reporters he rejects socialism and the DSA. He acknowledged that he and Nixon have differences, but said they are both fighting to address Floridians’ personal economic needs in housing, healthcare and education. He said Nixon is a “warrior who’s willing to fight for every Floridian and improve their economic conditions.”

“Angie and I are fighting to make sure everybody’s got a fair shot. I don’t worry about the labels,” he said.

Nixon said Saturday that her campaign is talking with Jolly’s team to determine where they would campaign together.

“We’re the yin and yang,” she said, describing Jolly and herself.

Daniel Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said Trump’s low approval rating provides an opportunity for Democrats. He also said Nixon is giving Democrats a boost, pulling in voters who usually stay on the sidelines. Jolly can’t win unless she performs well, Smith said.

“Democrats cannot win without heavier turnout among their base, which has stayed on the sidelines [in past elections], as well as no-party-affiliates, who once they come to the polls will vote for the Democratic ticket,” he said. “Having a candidate like Angie Nixon, because of the policies that they’re pushing, as much as identity politics, should help.”

Read more Optimism and tight polls: Can Florida Democrats flip Sunshine State blue in 2026?

An anxious GOP

There are signs that GOP candidates who easily won previous elections are increasingly anxious about a potential Democratic surge.

In the race for Florida’s 27th Congressional District, which includes Little Havana and Coral Gables, Democrats’ internal polling shows a tight and competitive race between Miami Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar and Elliot Rodriguez, the Democrat looking to oust her.

A recent poll of 600 likely voters for Democrats’ House Majority PAC by Tulchin Research, a San Francisco polling firm, found Salazar leading Rodriguez 47% to 46%.

In a newly released campaign ad on Thursday, Salazar criticized Trump directly, arguing that his administration’s immigration enforcement policies have gone too far.

Salazar’s ad reflects growing outrage among Hispanic voters who have found their lives and communities upended by the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigrant communities. When Miami labor unions knocked on 32,0000 doors between March and June and asked Hispanic voters to describe how they felt about immigration, 58% said they were disappointed and 19% said they were angry.

Read More: Miami unions knocked on 32,000 doors. This is what Hispanic voters told them

Rodriguez, a former CBS Miami anchor, said that as a journalist, he covered crazy stories, but Salazar’s ad campaign this week was “over the top.” He said Salazar voted for Trump’s immigration policies and is now against them because “she is scared.”

“She’s scared of me. She’s scared of you. She’s scared of all of us. Let’s keep them scared and let’s win these elections,” he said Saturday.

In Miami-Dade County, which voted Republican in the most recent elections for governor and president, the backlash presents an opportunity for Democrats, even in congressional districts newly drawn to benefit the GOP.

Recent polling indicates a tight contest in the state’s newly formed 22nd Congressional District—stretching across the Everglades from Broward County to Collier County—between Democratic contender Pia Dandiya and Republican nominee Casey Askar.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried reminded party members at the event that there is still significant work ahead in the weeks before Nov. 3. She urged them to stay focused, stay engaged and not be distracted by the polls.

“Every conversation matters. Every door matters. Every voter matters. So let’s get to work. Let’s take back our state now,” she said.

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