When will all this rain end in South Florida? It depends on the dust

It’s not over yet. More wet weather is on the way.

Wednesday. Thursday. Friday. And over the weekend, when rain chances spike to 80% chance in Miami-Dade and Broward, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

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The last few weeks in South Florida have seen daily bands of rainstorms, along with thunder and lightning that have canceled outdoor activities.

Will Miami dry out?

Is there a break coming?

Maybe. And it has to do with Saharan dust — or the lack of it lately and the pending arrival of the next plume, possibly early next week around Tuesday.

“Throughout most of the wet season — most of June, July, and even into August, we were below normal in terms of thunderstorms, but that really has started to pick up right now towards the end of August and into early September,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Nico Porcelli.

What we are now seeing are conditions that are more in line with a typical wet season.

“Scattered to numerous storms all over the place,” Porcelli said.

“Much of that is because over the last couple weeks we haven’t had that Saharan dust that was sitting over us in July and June, and we’ve stayed moist. We’ve had above average moisture the last couple of weeks, and that’s allowed for quite a bit of rain,” Porcelli said.

Saharan dust, a mass of dry, dusty air, can inhibit the development of tropical systems and storms.

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Until the dust arrives — and it’s too soon to tell whether the plume will make its way over South Florida — rain chances Thursday and Friday remain in the 60% to 70% range, ramp up over the weekend, and still hover around 50% Monday and Tuesday.

That means you could be getting wet if you’re heading to the University of Miami football game Thursday night or to dinner or synagogue for the start of the Jewish New Year at sundown Friday.

The Miami Hurricanes home opener against Florida A&M at Hard Rock Stadium kicks off at 8 p.m. Thursday. According to the weather service, at game start there’s a 42% chance of lingering rain in Miami Gardens and a temperature just above 80.

Why Saharan dust matters

“There is a signal that we may get some Saharan dust next week, and that could lower our chances once again to more isolated to scattered thunderstorms,” Porcelli said Wednesday afternoon.

The uncertainty is because that main plume may stay a little bit farther south over the Caribbean and may not make its way all the way up to us, according to Porcelli.

“But overall there should be less activity than what we’ve been seeing this week and last week.”

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