What Recent History Tells Us About the Chances of the Dolphins Pulling Off a Big Week 2 Upset

Any given Sunday.

Right?

We need to keep reminding ourselves of that NFL reality as the Miami Dolphins prepare to face the San Fancisco 49ers in a Week 2 matchup that almost seems unwinnable for a rebuilding program against a perennial contender coming off a season-opening spanking of the Super Bowl favorites.

Read more Analyzing Where Clarke Schmidt May Fit into Yankees’ Bullpen Trust Tree

The Dolphins will go into that game as 13.5-point underdogs, according to the Fan Duel Sportsbook, by far the largest point spread of Week 2.

It makes sense, though, with the Dolphins coming off a 14-point loss against the lightly regarded Las Vegas Raiders and the 49ers back from Australia after their 20-point victory against the Los Angeles Rams.

But this is the NFL, and upsets do happen, as we saw in Week 1 when the biggest favorite of the week, the Los Angeles Chargers, was not only defeated but dominated by the Arizona Cardinals – in a home game at SoFi Stadium no less.

So why should the idea of the Dolphins leaving San Francisco with a victory be dismissed?

Along with some obvious issues involving the two teams, Dolphins history tells us not to dismiss them in this game.

THE DOLPHINS LESSONS OF 2019

Yes, we’re going to keep going back to that season seven years ago with Brian Flores as the first-year head coach on a team that had stripped away a lot of its roster and saw a few more of its high-end players get sidelined early with injuries because the similarities to 2026 are just too obvious.

And one of those commonalities is the Dolphins being heavy underdogs in a lot of games.

And where this becomes significant is the Dolphins were able to win games as double-digit underdogs in 2019.

The Dolphins ended up being double-digit underdogs in an astounding nine games that season, but they outright won three of those last four.

Read more Marlins make this organizational change. News on Caissie, Hernandez, first base

The headliner, of course, was the season finale against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium that cost Tom Brady and company a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs, but they also pulled off the same feat earlier against both the Indianapolis Colts and the eventual NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Since that season, the Dolphins have gone into a game as a double-digit underdog five times, most recently last season in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills at the old Highmark Stadium, and lost all five.

But they were competitive in that Buffalo game last year before going down 31-21 and they also had a chance to win the 2022 playoff game at Buffalo as 13.5-point underdogs with Skylar Thompson at quarterback before losing 34-31.

THE RECIPE FOR AN UPSET

While it seems too much to predict a Dolphins upset in this game, there are some factors to consider.

From the 49ers side, there’s the possibility of aftereffects from having spent a week in Australia to prepare for that game and the players’ body clock still not back to normal.

San Francisco also lost rookie wide receiver De’Zhaun Stribling to an ankle injury in that game and are thin at wide receiver and now rookie running back Kaelon Black, who looked so impressive against the Rams, is a question mark with a groin injury he sustained in practice.

From the Dolphins side, there’s the hope and expectation that running back De’Von Achane will be a much bigger factor in the game after getting only 15 touches against Las Vegas and the expected improvement from the defense from Week 1 to Week 2.

Logic still says and will say until game time that the Dolphins aren’t likely to win, but there’s a reason they play the games. And Dolphins history has told us they indeed can pull off a big upset regardless of circumstances.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
• If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Today’s best reads

• How The Last Dolphins Trip to San Francisco Marked a Turning Point for Two Franchises
• What to Make of Fitzpatrick’s Bold (And Ugly) Dolphins Prediction
• Three Key Areas Where the Dolphins Have an Advantage Over the Raiders in Week 1
• Examining the Miami Dolphins’ Chop Situation from Different Angles
• The Important Lesson Dolphins Coach Jeff Hafley Took From His Brief Time with the 49ers

Copyright ABG-SI LLC. SPORTS ILLUSTRATED is a registered trademark of ABG-SI LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Read more Why the Dolphins need better offensive ‘execution’ vs. the 49ers

This story was originally published September 18, 2026 at 10:39 AM.