Polymarket NFL MVP Prediction Model Has Josh Allen as Overwhelming Favorite
Is there anything Josh Allen can’t do? He is the NFL’s version of Superman so far this season and Polymarket’s NFL MVP market strongly agrees. He is now the overwhelming favorite to win a second MVP with 32%.
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Allen’s price skyrocketed following NFL Week 2. He went into the week with a 16% chance to win. Following his performance on Thursday Night Football, he climbed to 24%. Now, after all Week 2 games, he’s up to 32%. He sits 20% ahead of the rest of the field and is the only player on the list above 15%. A $10 trade on Allen winning the MVP profits $18.83.
NFL MVP winner – Polymarket
- Josh Allen 32%
- Brock Purdy 12%
- Joe Burrow 9%
- Lamar Jackson 9%
- Caleb Williams 7%
- Patrick Mahomes 7%
Making his case
It’s hard for price setters not to double his price after the week he had and his numbers through only two games. Allen has 582 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 92 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns.
He posted 334 passing yards and four total TDs against the Houston Texans in Week 1, then 248 passing yards and five total TDs against the Detroit Lions in Week 2.
Looking at the rest of the Buffalo Bills schedule, FantasyPros ranks Buffalo’s remaining slate as the second-easiest for quarterbacks. That comes as Buffalo has games remaining against the Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, and Los Angeles Chargers. All those defenses have struggled out of the gate this season.
Back in the MVP race
Josh Allen has been here before as he’s finished top-5 in voting in several seasons and also won the 2024 MVP. He’s played at an MVP-caliber level in recent seasons with top-5 finishes in five of the last six seasons which included four in the top-3.
In 2024, he won MVP with 2,731 passing yards, 531 rushing yards, and 40 total TDs (28 passing, 12 rushing). Should Allen continue down this road, he’d finish with a career high in passing yards and touchdowns.
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We’ll get our next look at Allen in Week 3 at home against the 0-2 Chargers at 1 p.m. EST.
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Today’s best reads
- Josh Allen Surges in Kalshi NFL MVP Market
- NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Vaults to Clear Favorite, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy Rise, Plus Caleb Williams Injury Impact
- NFL MVP Odds: Caleb Williams ‘Without a Doubt’ Receiving Most Love in Market Ahead of Week 2
- SI:AM | The Bills’ Offense Is Humming, While the Lions’ Defense Sputters
- Bills’ Vision Is Becoming Clearer After 2–0 Start Against Playoff-Caliber Teams
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Polymarket NFL MVP Prediction Model Has Josh Allen as Overwhelming Favorite.
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This story was originally published September 22, 2026 at 1:48 PM.
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