How Trump’s slump is reshaping politics for Florida’s Republican candidates

Austin Gravley is an example of how the political environment has shifted for Florida Republicans this year.

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The 34-year-old Frostproof City Council member is a lifelong Republican who’s voted twice for Gov. Ron DeSantis and three times for President Donald Trump. After Trump left office in 2021, Gravley introduced a proclamation designating a Donald J. Trump Week for the Polk County city of 3,500 residents.

“I was as MAGA as they come,” he said.

But after nearly a decade of MAGA rule in Florida, Gravley said he’s had enough. He called the Iran War an avoidable “catastrophe” that’s driven up gas and other costs. He said tariffs chased away Canadian snowbirds that sustain Frostproof’s economy.

“This idea that he’s playing chess and not checkers?” Gravley said of Trump. “It’s getting pretty old.”

When Vice President JD Vance visits Lakeland on Thursday to stump for GOP U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and his campaign for Florida governor, he’ll encounter a different state from a year ago.

Diesel is hovering at record highs in Florida at more than $6 a gallon, compared to $3.56 per gallon last year. that a majority of voters in the state disapprove of Trump’s job performance, compared to 51% approving him in October 2025. Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee for governor, former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, has made a race considered a GOP cakewalk last year look unexpectedly competitive.

The state of play poses a quandary for Donalds and other Republican candidates who have long sought, touted and benefited from Trump’s support. The question is what they do now that Trump’s national approval rating has slipped to 37%, the lowest of any president leading into the midterms since at least 1990.

Publicly, Republicans dismiss Trump’s sagging support with the argument that Florida, his adopted home, has buffers that other states do not. They cite the GOP edge of 1.5 million in active registered voters over Democrats, magnitudes more campaign money and historical dominance. Republicans have won 83% of the 42 statewide races since 2000.

Trump, they say, always underperforms in polls. By campaigning aggressively over the next month, he will reach low-propensity voters who usually skip midterms and convince them to show up this year.

“The midterm elections are all about turnout, and there’s no one who energizes and engages Republican voters like President Donald J. Trump,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee. “The president is barnstorming the country and pouring resources into battleground races to tout his historic achievements, giving Republicans a boost to defy history in November.”

Trump’s coattails are proven. His endorsement of DeSantis in 2018 is credited for that year’s GOP victory. His sway over his base remains powerful.

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But other GOP insiders fret that Trump’s overall unpopularity isn’t helping in a general election where Democrats and independents can make a difference. They point out that some candidates, including Donalds, scrubbed their campaign websites of prominent displays of Trump support.

Bobby Williams, a Polk County resident who came in fifth in his long-shot bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, said Donalds faces a dilemma.

“Trump talked a big game, everyone got behind him, but nothing has happened,” said Williams, a former Trump supporter who now supports Jolly. “Gas prices affect everything across the board. It’s hurting his credibility.

“But Donalds wouldn’t be where he is if Trump hadn’t endorsed him,” Williams said. “He can’t distance himself. Both ways, he loses.”

Trump made clear over the weekend what he thinks Donalds should do.

“If Florida thought the story that Byron ‘dropped’ me was true, he would lose the Election, and that would be a terrible thing because he’s going to be a fantastic Governor!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Rabbit Bronson, a longtime Republican who runs a barber shop in Branford, a town of about 800 in Suwannee County, said he will never vote for Jolly. He said he won’t vote for Donalds, either. (He said he’s voting for a no-party-affiliated candidate.) Trump won’t convince him to vote for Donalds, he said, in part because he thinks the U.S. representative is too pro-development. Still, Bronson said Donalds will benefit from having the president campaign for him.

“Any juggernaut like Trump will help,” Bronson said. “We have so many sheep out here that don’t pay attention to the governor’s race, there’s no doubt Trump will help him.”

The Florida GOP is touting Thursday’s rally as a can’t-miss opportunity.

“Bring a friend and show the country Florida Republicans are ready to win,” the group posted on Twitter.

Vance will attend a fundraiser after the Lakeland event. It’s invite-only. Attendees can get a photo with Donalds if they give $25,000 or raise $50,000. VIPs need to contribute $5,000.

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As for Gravley, he’ll skip it altogether.

He’ll be in Destin campaigning — for Jolly.