Cote: NFL Week 1 picks! Will Miami Dolphins-Raiders be one of three big upsets?

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 1 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

DOLPHINS (0-0) at RAIDERS (0-0)

Line: LV by 3.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 19-17.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

Week 1 in the NFL wears its customary cloak of mystery. It’s a feeling-out thing. It’s why point spreads are conservative. The preseason tells us very, very little. Miami was 0-3 for example but starting QB Malik Willis played all of one series (and led a 93-yard scoring drive). For these reasons and more, the dire predictions for the Dolphins are yet to be proved right. “Aaawwwk!” agrees the Upset Bird, in backing this pick. “Miamiaawwk!” Don’t get it wrong. Does this means I think the rebuilding Fins will be good in their first year under new coach Jeff Hafley? No. A playoff contender? No. More likely a contender for the No. 1 overall draft pick? Yes. But none of that means Miami isn’t capable of beating a fellow lower-tier foe like Las Vegas. And the Fins’ upset shot received a massive gift with the midweek news that Raiders star TE Brock Bowers would miss the opener after a minor knee procedure. Game lost a bit of luster with the news rookie QB Fernando Mendoza out of Miami Columbus High would start season on the bench. But that also could work in Fins’ favor as the ball goes to sedentary veteran Kirk Cousins, who led he NFL in interceptions in 2024. Added spice: Fins LT Patrick Paul on facing LV star edge rusher Maxx Crosby: “I feel like he’s a hothead, so a lot of those things you could get into his game with that.” Crosby: “We’ll see Sunday.” What I expect to see: Malik Willis show himself as starting caliber. At least one young receiver step up. RB De’Von Achane announce himself as elite. And a young, disregarded team reveal its fight. “Plus, the Raiders stink,” notes U-Bird. “Aaawwwk!”

GAME OF THE WEEK

BRONCOS (0-0) at CHIEFS (0-0)

Line: KC by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 23-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

Rancor out the gate as the Game of the Week committee convened, with boisterous dissent favoring Bills-Texans. So why did this game prevail? Division intrigue for starters. Was last year’s 14-3 record a fluke for Denver? Can K.C. bounce back from 6-11 led by Patrick Mahomes coming of knee surgery? Let’s find out — and under the Monday night lights, too. A rusty and perhaps fragile Mahomes vs. a big pass rush is worrisome, but K.C. adding RB Kenneth Walker III lends great and needed support. Chiefs defense has improved as well. Denver has won three in a row and four of five in this rivalry, but I see Broncos and Bo Nix declining a notch from last year. And I like Andy Reid and Mahomes, buoyed at home, extremely driven to verify that their long run of championship contention is about to resume after a pause — not an end. This opener will announce whether that’s true.

THE REST OF WEEK 1:

Wednesday night pick was @Seahawks (-3) over Patriots, 21-17: Seattle won, 13-10. That’s a win outright for us and a push against the line. Find complete prediction capsule separately here.

Thursday night pick was Rams (-3 1/2) over 49ers in Australia, 27-24: Find that complete prediction capsule separately here.

@Bengals (0-0, -3 1/2) over Buccaneers (0-0), 31-20: I see a healthy Joe Burrow and Cincy poised for a rebound season and playoff contention. I see Tampa Bay closer to needing a rebuild, although it might not be ready to admit it yet. Keen eye out for what immediate impact comes from for Bucs rookie edge rusher Reuben Bain Jr. out of The U.

@Lions (0-0, -7) over Saints (0-0), 34-17: Jared Goff is adjusting to a new offense, but if the strategy is “get the ball to Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown — a lot,” they’ll be fine. N’Awlins and underrated Tyler Shough might find gaps in an average Lions defense, but not enough to outscore Detroit.

@Titans (0-0, -1 1/2) over Jets (0-0), 20-17: Fun fact: The Jets were the New York Titans (AFL, 1960-62) before changing nicknames. The present-day Titans are coached by Robert Saleh, whom the Jets fired in 2024. I like Tennessee at home, stoked to win this for Saleh and with QB Cam Ward poised for a Year 2 bounce.

Ravens (0-0, -3 1/2) over @Colts (0-0), 27-20: Is this the season Lamar Jackson finally gets that elusive first Super Bowl win? Tough road challenge begins the trek, but L-Jack has ample help with Derrick Henry’s tank nowhere near empty. I’m still feeling Colts QB Daniel Jones, coming off an Achilles injury, is headed for a back-to-Earth season.

@Steelers (0-0, -3 1/2) over Falcons (0-0), 23-10: All eyes on the QBs here as Aaron Rodgers begins his swansong season at 42 and failed Fin Tua Tagovailoa tries to convince everybody he’s still NFL starter-caliber. Tua clearly is in a fight to keep the job ahead of Michael Penix Jr. Not fearing Tua, watch Steelers flood the box to stop Bijan Robinson. Pitt has won five straight vs. ATL. Make it six.

Bears (0-0, -3) over @Panthers (0-0), 30-17: Caleb Williams might be still earning his props from doubters, but this Chicago offense is the real deal. I don’t see pick-prone Bryce Young and Carolina keeping up. Panthers rode a weak division to the playoffs at 8-9 last season and remain not that good.

@Jaguars (0-0, -8 1/2) over Browns (0-0), 34-10: Cleveland’s comeback kid Deshaun Watson got booed by Browns fans in preseason so there’s no safe haven for him in NFL. His offense is weak and the defense lost DPOY Myles Garrett, so not much hope on the banks of Lake Erie. And Trevor Lawrence (like Watson an ex-Clemson QB) and Jax seem ready for breakout year.

@Texans (+1 1/2) over Bills (0-0), 24-20: Upset! C.J. Stroud is dealing with a couple of WR injuries, but he still has top target Nico Collins — vs. a Buffs secondary thin at cornerback. If Texans O-line gives Stroud enough time, watch HOU beat Bills for a third straight season. Like Josh Allen and Co. to be playoff-good as usual, but this is tough trip to open with.

Packers (0-0, +1 1/2) over @Vikings (0-0), 23-21: Upset! Vikes defensive chief Brian Flores majors in aggression and blitzing and it has led to a 3-1 run in this division rivalry. But I like Jordan Love to solve that this time, even missing top RB Josh Jacobs. Give Minnesota the edge on D but, on the other side, there are reason Arizona gave up on Kyler Murray.

@Eagles (0-0, -5 1/2) over Commanders (0-0), 29-16: Washington’s Dan Quinn tops most first-coach-fired betting lists with reason, and his Commanders defense is the worst unit on the field in this division matchup. Comms won the last meeting, but series returns to normal here with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley out front.

@Chargers (0-0, -9 1/2) over Cardinals (0-0), 30-17: Week 1’s biggest point spread favors LAC, largely because Arizona is (likely) that bad. The Chargers especially are significantly better on defense than the Cardbirds. Justin Herbert and crew have the stronger offense here, too, although let’s see if the move to Mike McDaniel’s new offense runs smoothly out the gate.

Cowboys (0-0, -3) over @Giants (0-0), 28-24: Intriguing division matchup worthy of Sunday prime time. Can Dak Prescott finally deliver Jerry Jones another Super Bowl trip? Can new star coach John Harbaugh magically make winners of NYG again? Will Odell Beckham Jr’s comeback with Biggies prove inspiring … or sad? Stamp this game with an Upset Alert. With Pro Bowl OG Tyler Smith out, Dak might need his scrambling shoes vs. Giants’ stout D-line, but I still like him finding a way to outscore Jaxson Dart, who, barring a bit more proof, is overhyped.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We launched our NFL picks (the “Friday Page”) in the Miami Herald in 1991. Dan Marino was still in his Pro Bowl prime. The Grateful Dead had the highest-grossing music tour. LeBron James was a 7-year-old kid in Akron. The Bills were in the midst of losing four straight Super Bowls. Thirty-five years later, welcome back to our longtime readers and welcome aboard to the newbies. You know we like to have fun here (”Aawwk!” concurs the Upset Bird), but we take our picks seriously, too. We saw a dip in results last year so we’re lookin’ to bounce back big in ’26. Ready? Let’s go! [Note: Find separate full prediction capsules for Wednesday’s Patriots-Seahawks game here and Thursday’s 49ers-Rams game here.]

Final 2025: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 vs. spread.

Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.