AfD leads in German state election, but governing majority uncertain

World admin September 6, 2026 0 Comments

AfD leads in German state election, but governing majority uncertain

MAGDEBUR, Germany – The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set for an overwhelming victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, but an unprecedented governing majority for the far-right party remains uncertain.

Projections by broadcasters ARD and ZDF show the AfD winning Sunday’s election with over 44% of the vote, far ahead of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) on 18.5%.

The result is a major setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party, with exit polls suggesting his approval rating among voters in Saxony-Anhalt has sunk to just 9%.

The AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, said the party has “made history” in Saxony-Anhalt, although initial projections suggest it will likely fall short of securing an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament in Magdeburg.

The AfD has never participated in a ruling coalition in Germany’s 16 states or the federal government, as the country’s mainstream parties refuse to work with it, a policy infamously known as the “firewall.”

Under the charismatic 35-year-old Siegmund, the AfD has been hoping to bypass the firewall in Saxony-Anhalt by winning an absolute majority, allowing it to become the first far-right party to govern a German state since World War II.

Despite the AfD outperforming pre-election polling, the scenario appears unlikely, leaving it far from clear who will lead the next government in Saxony-Anhalt.

A continuation of the existing three-way coalition under Premier Sven Schulze from the CDU is impossible, with the liberal Free Democrats set to finish far below the 5% threshold needed to win seats in parliament.

The projections suggest a trio of left-wing parties – The Left, the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD) – have comfortably passed the 5% hurdle, hovering between 8% and 9.5%.

They could potentially form a four-party coalition with the CDU, but Merz’s party has refused any collaboration with The Left, a successor to the communist party that governed the former East Germany.

The surprise of the evening, and a potential kingmaker, is the populist Sahra Wagnknecht Alliance (BSW), with the party on exactly 5% in the latest projections.

The BSW has points of agreement with the AfD on issues such as migration and opposition to German aid for Ukraine, and party founder Sahra Wagenknecht has warned that the firewall against the AfD has “failed.”

It is unclear whether the two camps would be able to agree on a coalition, however, with the BSW having previously said it would favor an independent premier.

Turnout was above 75%, ARD reported, reflecting the huge attention generated by Sunday’s election.

While Merz’s nightmare scenario of an absolute majority for the AfD appears to have failed to materialize, the result is a major blow for the chancellor, who once famously pledged to halve the far-right party’s popularity.

Having finished second in last year’s federal election, the party is leading in national polls, with the next vote to be held by 2029.

The AfD’s rise has come even as its branch in Saxony-Anhalt is under surveillance by intelligence services due to its “confirmed” extremist views.

The party’s manifesto includes setting up a task force to speed up deportations, reviving school exchanges with Russia, creating segregated classes for the children of asylum-seekers and banning rainbow flags in schools.

Merz is already under huge pressure as his government struggles to implement a package of economic and social reforms.

Rising inflation and continuing trade disruption linked to the war in Iran have only complicated the task, while Merz’s leadership has been called into question.

With his national approval ratings plunging to a historic low of 13% in July, Merz was largely absent from the campaign trail in Saxony-Anhalt, making his first appearance on Monday just days before voters headed to the polls.

A YouGov poll last week found more than half of respondents believe Merz will be replaced before the next federal election.

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