Hurricane season forecast is ‘below normal’ — but that comes with a warning

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “below normal,” largely due to an El Niño weather pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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NOAA’s hurricane season outlook, released Thursday, forecasts 8 to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.

Forecasters say there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Despite the outlook, NOAA Under Secretary of Commerce Neil Jacobs cautioned people not to let down their guard.

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” Jacobs said during a news briefing Thursday. He noted that Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons in the past.

NOAA’s forecast closely aligns with several other leading commercial and academic projections. Last month, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Read more Hurricane season forecast is ‘below normal’ — but that comes with a warning

In March, AccuWeather predicted between 11 and 16 named storms for the 2026 season.

Forecasters have pointed to El Niño — a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures — as a key reason for the expected slowdown in storm activity.

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One of El Niño’s biggest effects on the Atlantic basin is typically a reduction in hurricanes and tropical storms. Hurricanes develop through strong upward motion in the atmosphere, but El Niño increases upper-level wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation and make it more difficult for storms to strengthen.

Last year’s most destructive storm was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. The storm caused nearly $9 billion in damage and was blamed for 95 deaths across the Caribbean.

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This story will be updated.