{"id":817,"date":"2026-05-21T18:02:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=817"},"modified":"2026-05-21T18:02:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:02:22","slug":"venezuelas-uncertain-future-looms-large-over-colombias-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=817","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela\u2019s uncertain future looms large over Colombia\u2019s presidential election"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><span>Bogot\u00e1, Colombia<\/span><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Less than two weeks before the first round of Colombia\u2019s high-stakes presidential election, it is anyone\u2019s guess who might lead the South American nation for the next four years.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=815\">Miami\u2019s wealth boom: Top stories from luxury terminals to billionaire buys<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The race has narrowed to a handful of hopefuls who personify staunchly different political persuasions \u2013 a sign of the country\u2019s <u>polarized<\/u> electorate.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>While the candidates proffer solutions to everything from inflation to insecurity, one issue has no easy fix: what to do about Venezuela, a country that shares a 1,379-mile land border with Colombia.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Since the United States military deposed Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3, there has been a question mark over the political and economic future of Venezuela.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In Colombia, that uncertainty bears real ramifications for whoever assumes office in August, who will be forced to navigate trade, security and diplomatic relations with Caracas, all under Washington\u2019s watchful eye.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><b>Who are the key candidates?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>As it stands, three candidates have a chance at the country\u2019s highest office ahead of first-round elections on May 31.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Leading the pack with roughly 40% in voter intention polls is Ivan Cepeda, the designated successor to lead leftist incumbent Gustavo Petro\u2019s Historic Pact party.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>On the right, the race is divided between two hopefuls: Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>De la Espriella is a famous criminal attorney in Colombia and his bid for the presidency marks his first stab at public office.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Valencia, on the other hand, has served as a Senator since 2014 for the Democratic Center party, which is led by hard-right ex-President Alvaro Uribe, who served from 2002-10.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Both candidates on the right promise pro-business reforms and an iron fist against surging rebel violence.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Cepeda pledges to continue Petro\u2019s progressive platform which promotes labor rights and advocates for marginalized sectors of the population.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>The long shadow of Jan. 3<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cNone of the candidates really has a policy on the situation in Venezuela,\u201d said Ronal Rodriguez, a researcher at Bogota\u2019s Universidad del Rosario\u2019s Venezuela Observatory.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>He argues that, while relations with Colombia\u2019s neighbor were a key talking point in previous electoral cycles, candidates have avoided being pinned down this time round.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Rodriguez noted that those who did make declarations about Venezuela have been forced to backtrack since Jan. 3. For example, de la Espriella had pledged to sever relations with Venezuela but now he says that, while he would not sit down with Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, he would work with Caracas, albeit through the U.S.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is unlikely that a Colombian president\u2026 would enter into a confrontation with a country that is currently under U.S. tutelage,\u201d noted Rodriguez.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Valencia, who said last year that she would work with Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez, also now appears geared to follow Washington\u2019s lead in working with the interim government.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor our government, cooperation on the reconstruction of Venezuela will be a priority,\u201d wrote Valencia in an X post in April.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>While the right-wing candidate has said she does not see herself sitting down with Delcy Rodriguez, she appears set on cooperating with the White House.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, leftist candidate Cepeda has avoided concrete declarations on Venezuela. But the longtime senator is haunted by a history of tweets supporting Hugo Chavez, the late strongman who created Venezuela\u2019s socialist state, and his successor, Maduro.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf he wins the presidency, there could be significant pressure from U.S. authorities against the Colombian government,\u201d said Rodriguez.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The analyst noted that Cepeda could face similar sanctions from the White House as has Petro, who had his U.S. assets frozen after President Donald Trump accused him of being \u201can illegal drug dealer\u201d last year.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Shortly after Maduro\u2019s capture, the White House threatened a similar operation against Petro for opposing the intervention. Cepeda, who has vocally condemned U.S. interference in Latin America, will be under pressure from Washington to cooperate.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=813\">Nikki Beach gets an extension before shutting down. Here\u2019s when it will close<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>A fruitful bilateral relationship<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>With the candidates under pressure to work with Venezuela, albeit on Washington\u2019s terms, a few key bilateral issues come into play.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cImproving the relationship between these two countries has enormous gains to offer for both sides that I think it will be difficult for a forthcoming administration to overlook,\u201d explained Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>She noted that Venezuela used to be a key export market for Colombian agricultural goods, particularly staple crops, chickens and eggs. While trade took a hit when ex-President Iv\u00e1n Duque, who served from 2018-22, severed ties, there is now an opportunity for Colombian businesses to export food as well as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For Rodr\u00edguez, trade with Colombia is vital to Venezuela\u2019s economic future: \u201cVenezuela\u2019s economic recovery depends largely on how its relationship with Colombia is managed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The analyst added that Washington is keen for Colombia to buy natural gas from Venezuela, which recently agreed to export the hydrocarbon to its neighbor.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In addition to economic issues, security problems are a key topic in bilateral relations.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The land border between Colombia and Venezuela has historically been a hotbed for guerrilla activity, narcotrafficking, and illegal mining.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Colombia\u2019s next president will be under pressure to tackle the country\u2019s worst internal security crisis since the 2016 peace deal with FARC rebels.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>While Cepeda vows to continue negotiating with armed groups, Valencia and de la Espriella pledge a heavy-handed approach against the rebels.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>However, fighting armed groups on the lawless border with Venezuela, a conflict hotspot, may prove difficult without help from Caracas.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think one of the challenges for the Colombian state over the past decades has been the fact that armed and criminal groups\u2026 have moved seamlessly across the border and been able to take refuge in Venezuela,\u201d Dickinson said.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The analyst noted that Colombian guerrillas have historically found refuge in Venezuela, where local security forces are often \u201ccomplicit\u201d with rebels, taking a cut from illicit economies.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>But now Delcy Rodriguez is under pressure from Washington to expel Colombian armed groups \u2013 many of them U.S-designated terrorist organizations.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The right-wing candidates may then be forced to sit down with the interim president after all if they want to deliver on their mandate of crushing the armed groups.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>But Dickinson also noted that Caracas may not be able to help: \u201cI think it would be very difficult for Venezuela to immediately turn that ship around and start combating the very criminal groups that they have had a complicit relationship with<b>.<\/b>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>The human cost<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>As Colombia\u2019s presidential candidates tip-toe around Venezuela and Washington pushes economic \u201creconstruction\u201d, there is another vital issue surrounding bilateral relations: migration.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe stability of millions of Venezuelans residing in Colombia is currently up in the air,\u201d said Juan Carlos Viloria Doria, president of the Global Alliance for Human Rights and Vice-President of Venezuelans in Barranquilla, an advocacy organization.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Some 2.8 million Venezuelans live in Colombia, many of them after having fled economic hardship or political persecution. Roughly one million face an uncertain migratory status, having entered the country informally.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe next administration will have the task of implementing better public policies to protect and integrate migrants,\u201d said Viloria.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For him, Colombia\u2019s next president will assume an important role not only in formalizing migrants but in pushing for change in Venezuela that will allow them to go home:<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cColombia must strive to find a peaceful, constitutional, and coordinated solution that supports Venezuelans in the process of rebuilding their country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=811\">\u2018Personal health update\u2019: Donald Trump Jr.\u2019s ex has major news<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>Additional reporting by Isabel Ramelli<\/i><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Colombia votes, leaders face hard choices on Venezuela: rebuilding trade, tackling cross-border crime, and managing 2.8 million migrants.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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