{"id":807,"date":"2026-05-21T16:31:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=807"},"modified":"2026-05-21T16:31:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:31:46","slug":"hurricane-season-forecast-is-below-normal-but-that-comes-with-a-warning-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=807","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane season forecast is \u2018below normal\u2019 \u2014 but that comes with a warning"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be \u201cbelow normal,\u201d largely due to an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

Read more Man who killed girl and mom will finally \u2018face the consequences,\u2019 prosecutor says<\/a><\/p>\n

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NOAA\u2019s hurricane season outlook, released Thursday, forecasts 8 to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n

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Forecasters say there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.<\/p>\n

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Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.<\/p>\n

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Despite the outlook, NOAA Under Secretary of Commerce Neil Jacobs cautioned people not to let down their guard.<\/p>\n

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\u201cEven though we\u2019re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it\u2019s very important to understand that it only takes one,\u201d Jacobs said during a news briefing Thursday. He noted that Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons in the past.<\/p>\n

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NOAA\u2019s forecast closely aligns with several other leading commercial and academic projections. Last month, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.<\/p>\n

Read more Hurricane season forecast is \u2018below normal\u2019 \u2014 but that comes with a warning<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In March, AccuWeather predicted between 11 and 16 named storms for the 2026 season.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Forecasters have pointed to El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures \u2014 as a key reason for the expected slowdown in storm activity.<\/p>\n

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READ MORE: A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could form. What does that mean for South Florida?<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

One of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s biggest effects on the Atlantic basin is typically a reduction in hurricanes and tropical storms. Hurricanes develop through strong upward motion in the atmosphere, but El Ni\u00f1o increases upper-level wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation and make it more difficult for storms to strengthen.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Last year\u2019s most destructive storm was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. The storm caused nearly $9 billion in damage and was blamed for 95 deaths across the Caribbean.<\/p>\n

Read more Palm Beach chef\u2019s Michelin-recommended restaurant finally opens in Coral Gables<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

This story will be updated.<\/i><\/p>\n

<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with 8\u201314 named storms. 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