{"id":700,"date":"2026-05-19T21:01:47","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T21:01:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=700"},"modified":"2026-05-19T21:01:47","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T21:01:47","slug":"a-super-el-nino-could-form-what-does-that-mean-for-south-florida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=700","title":{"rendered":"A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could form. What does that mean for South Florida?"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>A potentially historic El Ni\u00f1o is brewing in the Pacific \u2014 one that forecasters say could become among the strongest ever recorded, reshaping weather patterns worldwide by altering rainfall, temperatures and how hurricanes form.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=698\">City of Miami to pay Joe Carollo $770K to settle decades-old pension dispute<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a naturally occurring climate pattern that brings warmer ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific every two to seven years. This could shape up to be the biggest El Ni\u00f1o since the 1870s.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>So what does a possible \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o mean for South Florida?<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith big El Ni\u00f1os, there are winners and losers. South Florida is generally speaking a winner,\u201d said Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist and dean at the University of Miami\u2019s Rosenstiel School.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>One of the biggest local effects of the powerful climate phenomenon is usually fewer hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic. Tropical storms and hurricanes form vertically upward. El Ni\u00f1o increases the wind shear higher up in the atmosphere which can throw the formation off course.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That makes it harder for storms to strengthen. It\u2019s kind of like trying to keep a candle lit while blowing on the flame.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Combine that with the high-pressure system called a \u201cBermuda High\u201d that sits in the Atlantic all summer long and steers where storms make landfall. As it retreats to the northeast toward the central and North Atlantic out at sea, it sends more storms out into the open ocean instead of pummeling toward the U.S. coast.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Put together, those two factors often mean fewer storms threatening South Florida \u2014 but that doesn\u2019t mean zero risk. Storms still happen in El Ni\u00f1o years. In 1992, for example, there were only five named storms\u2014but Hurricane Andrew still made landfall in South Florida.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople can\u2019t let their guard down,\u201d said Barry Baxter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Colorado State University is predicting a near to slightly below average hurricane season. They are calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>What can weaken El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s storm-suppressing benefits<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Even during El Ni\u00f1o years, other climate drivers can offset its suppressing effects for hurricanes, climate change being one of them.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The tropical Atlantic has been unusually warm in recent years because of climate change, providing extra energy that can fuel storm formation, Kirtman said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Then there\u2019s the \u201cMadden-Julian Oscillation,\u201d Kirtman said. It covers the whole tropics with a huge formation of rising air, thunderstorms, clouds and heavy rain that is followed by dryness. The dry side of the formation helps prevent storm development. The moist, high-energy formation promotes storm development.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The system races around the globe for 45 to 60 days, and if the high moisture formation overlaps with a storm formation during peak season, then it could offset the El Ni\u00f1o storm suppression.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>A wetter dry season and higher king tide flooding<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o won\u2019t raise the air temperature this summer, but South Florida may still feel some of its heat in the form of humidity, from the oceans heating up, Kirtman said.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=697\">Should Miami-Dade keep a tax for teacher pay, school security? Voters will decide<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s most noticeable effects happen during the winter, when El Ni\u00f1o will actually make things cooler and wetter, which is another win for the region, Kirtman said, especially since wet season still isn\u2019t predicted to bring enough rain to fully recover from the record drought.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>William Sweet, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) oceanographer spearheading efforts to track and predict changes in sea level and coastal flooding, said \u201crain is a welcomed thing, until it is not.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Looking at the data of El Ni\u00f1os, strong ones, like the one anticipated to form, come with more high tide flooding. It\u2019s especially apparent on the West Coast but in large sections of the East Coast, too.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cEvery time we have a strong El Ni\u00f1o, we tend to have record breakers all over, meaning the number of days with water in the streets. Some years are worse than others, oftentimes those are El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Sweet said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The high tides roll in when the Gulf Stream off Florida\u2019s coast slows down, allowing water to move closer to the coast and temporarily raise sea levels along parts of the East Coast, including Miami, Sweet said. El Ni\u00f1o can push the jet stream farther south, which sends more storms towards Florida and disrupts the Gulf Stream, causing it to fluctuate or weaken at times.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>When that happens, coastal water levels can rise quickly \u2014 sometimes by around a foot \u2014 worsening flooding during high tides, heavy rain or storms.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Sweet compared the Gulf Stream to a banjo string. When strong weather systems \u201cpluck\u201d it with wind and pressure changes, the current can start fluctuating, speeding up and slowing down in ways that affect sea levels along the coast.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Scientists see a clearer connection between El Ni\u00f1o and unusually high coastal water levels from about New Jersey to South Carolina. In South Florida, the picture is less clear.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In South Florida, some El Ni\u00f1o years bring higher water levels and flooding, but other non-El Ni\u00f1o years can too. What that suggests is that El Ni\u00f1o is only one piece of the puzzle of high tide flooding in South Florida. Rising sea levels also are the result of climate change and fluctuate with regular weather patterns, like a distant tropical storm.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>What are the odds it turns out to be a historic \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>One of the key indicators of El Ni\u00f1o strength lies beneath the ocean surface, where warm water builds in the western Pacific near Australia. Similar heat patterns preceded the major 1997\u20131998 El Ni\u00f1o, one of the strongest on record, and current conditions show comparable warming in that region.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Still, forecasting intensity remains difficult. A strong El Ni\u00f1o requires not just warm ocean conditions but also supportive atmospheric conditions, which are not guaranteed. Forecasters currently estimate an 82% chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing by early summer. The National Weather Service also reports a 37% chance that it could become a very strong event by fall.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Climate warming is making forecasting trickier, Kirtman said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re calling for this uber El Ni\u00f1o to happen, but how much of the warm water that we\u2019re seeing at this moment in time is due to the fact that the oceans are just warming up, and how much is actually this natural variability that\u2019s superimposed on that? That\u2019s a hard question,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>Ashley Miznazi is a climate change reporter for the Miami Herald funded by the Lynn and Louis Wolfson II Family Foundation and MSC Cruises in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/floridamovingchronicle.com\/?p=696\">School pride: Booker T. students surprised with $30,000 college scholarships<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters warn a potentially historic El Ni\u00f1o could form, altering rainfall, temperatures and hurricane risks for South Florida in the coming seasons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could form. 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