Hawaii in crosshairs again? Latest storm forecast as Fay fades in Atlantic

As Tropical Storm Fay fades away in the Atlantic, the action in the Pacific basin continues to roar, with a burgeoning hurricane near Mexico and a possible tropical storm near Hawaii.

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With Fay not expected to reach hurricane strength, it becomes the sixth tropical storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season to have that fate. It’s a record slow start to the season in terms of hurricanes in the Atlantic, the first time the basin has been hurricane-free this far into the season.

The quiet Atlantic and busy Pacific are both hallmarks of the current very strong El Niño the world is now experiencing.

Fay to fade

Far out in the Atlantic Ocean, no threat to land, Tropical Storm Fay won’t be long for this world, as all forecasts now show the system dissipating by midweek.

“It had been a threat to the 2026 hurricane-free record we’ve been carrying,” said Connecticut-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack “The Eyewall.”

“Maximum sustained winds did hit 70 mph (estimated) last night as Fay briefly made a run for hurricane intensity,” Lanza said. “But that risk is now over with, and we’re going to see Fay fade away as the week moves forward.”

Polo to threaten Mexico as hurricane

In the Pacific basin, heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week, the National Hurricane Center said. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, the hurricane center said.

“Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of impacts,” the hurricane center said. “Residents in southwestern Mexico should closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of southwestern Mexico.”

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Hawaii watches tropical disturbance

Elsewhere in the Pacific, an as-yet unnamed tropical disturbance is being closely watched by forecasters at both the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

According to the hurricane center, “showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by that time to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.”

In Honolulu, weather service forecasters said in an online forecast that “potential tropical development threatens to bring heavy rainfall to eastern portions of the state during the latter half of the week, though uncertainty remains higher than usual at this time.”

Flood watches will likely soon be hoisted for the Big Island and possibly for Maui, the weather service said.

Odalys also out there

Also spinning in the Pacific is Tropical Storm Odalys, now 1,390 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week, but is no threat to any land areas as of the latest forecast from the hurricane center.

Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hawaii in crosshairs again? Latest storm forecast as Fay fades in Atlantic

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Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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This story was originally published September 21, 2026 at 11:37 AM.