Poll: No clear leader in Missouri referendum on gerrymandered congressional map

National admin September 10, 2026 0 Comments

Poll: No clear leader in Missouri referendum on gerrymandered congressional map

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A Missouri poll found 35% yes, 32% no and 33% unsure on the map referendum.

Conflicting state and federal court orders left Missouri’s map in legal limbo for now.

Lead pollster suspects people are confused about what they’re voting for.

Missouri’s congressional map is in legal limbo after state and federal courts issued conflicting orders on which map to use in 2026, but Missourians will have a chance to vote regardless of the outcome.

The first public poll on the referendum offers little indication of how voters will decide in November. In a poll conducted by St. Louis University and the British pollster YouGov, 35% of respondents said they would vote yes, 32% said no and 33% were unsure.

“The short answer is that I don’t think voters know what the amendment means,” said Steven Rogers, director of the poll.

In a poll Rogers conducted in February, voters were asked if they supported the state Legislature adopting a congressional map that carved up Missouri’s existing map to create one more Republican seat.

“In that redistricting question, what we did is we explained it a little bit more,” Rogers said. “We said the state legislature passed a 7-1 map, and then it’s replacing a 6-2 map. Do you support what the legislature did?”

The results were clearer: 41% of voters supported the change, 44% opposed it and 15% were not sure. But when respondents were presented with the question that will appear on the ballot, the results became muddier.

The official ballot title may be difficult to understand for people who are not familiar with the legislative process. It says:

“Do the people of the state of Missouri approve the act of the General Assembly entitled ‘House Bill No. 1 (2025 Second Extraordinary Session),’ which repeals Missouri’s existing congressional plan, and replaces it with new congressional boundaries that keep more counties intact?” the ballot language says.

The ballot language says a yes vote “will approve the act of the General Assembly entitled ‘House Bill No. 1 (2025 Extraordinary Session),’ which redraws the congressional district boundaries.” And that a no vote “will leave in place the congressional district boundaries enacted in 2022.”

The poll tracked how respondents voted in February. A sizable chunk of people either switched positions or remained unclear about what they were voting on.

“I would say at least a third of voters are just confused. I want to say half, but that’s going pretty far,” Rogers said. “I think what the campaigns need to do in the short term, and I think it’s going to be easy to just explain what a no vote is.”

Campaign committees on both sides of the referendum are already gearing up.

Put Missouri First, the campaign supporting the gerrymandered congressional map lawmakers passed in 2025, reported that it raised $3.1 million as of July 15, the latest campaign filing deadline.

During the same period, People Not Politicians, the campaign against the map, reported raising $6.3 million.

This story was originally published September 10, 2026 at 7:00 AM with the headline “Poll: No clear leader in Missouri referendum on gerrymandered congressional map.”