Scott Galloway issues grim SpaceX stock price forecast

With a market cap of $1.91 trillion, SpaceX is among the most valuable companies in the world.

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SpaceX (SPCX) listed on the Nasdaq in June 2026, raising over $75 billion in its initial public offering.

Last month, New York University marketing professor Scott Galloway said Wall Street has gotten the math badly wrong on SpaceX, and he is not shy about putting a number on just how wrong.

SpaceX stock price target sits far below market

In a recent podcast, Galloway said that SpaceX shares are worth somewhere between $10 and $30.

At the time of writing, SPCX stock trades at $148, which means Galloway believes the stock could fall 80% from current levels without undervaluing the company.

According to Business Insider, Galloway said:

“It’s still crazy overvalued. I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”

Here is what makes his call notable.

SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share in the summer, giving Musk’s rocket company a valuation near $1.8 trillion.

The stock then climbed as high as $225 before tumbling over 50% to $105. It has since recovered and has traded above its IPO price in the last two weeks.

Galloway argues that price action has little to do with the underlying business. He pointed to a few mechanical quirks in how the stock trades:

• Only about 4-5% of SpaceX shares were available for public trading right after the IPO, which limited supply.
• The stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 forced index funds to buy shares regardless of price.
• SpaceX priced a $25 billion bond offering less than two weeks after going public, even though it was sitting on more than $100 billion in cash.
• The debt sale, Galloway said, tells investors this is really an AI infrastructure bet wearing a rocket company’s uniform.

“Musk will go down as the greatest engineer of our time, but as a financial engineer,” Galloway said in the episode, according to Business Insider.

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What the SpaceX financials show

Galloway’s skepticism aligns with SpaceX’s financials.

Given data from Fiscal.ai, SpaceX sales have grown from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $23 billion in the last 12 months.

It reported a net loss of $4.6 billion in 2023 and $4.9 billion in 2025. Over the last 12-months, its net losses have totaled $8.2 billion.

In the trailing 12-month period, SpaceX reported an operating margin of -16.2%.

SpaceX burned through $31.2 billion in free cash flow on a trailing basis, driven partly by $41.1 billion in capital expenditures, largely tied to AI compute buildout.

Related: SpaceX is now in your 401(k), and Musk is the risk

The company ended with $100 billion in cash, much of it raised through the IPO and that bond sale.

In the second quarter earnings call, CFO Bret Johnsen said the AI compute spending is paying back in under a year.

Notably, Johnsen explained that this kind of capital deployment behaves more like cost of goods sold than a traditional long-term investment, since it needs to keep being replenished to sustain growth.

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Another Musk bear sees more pain ahead

Galloway is not alone in his bearish call.

George Noble, the former manager of Fidelity Overseas Fund, told Business Insider that SpaceX and Tesla represent “two of the best shorts in the market.”

Noble expects SpaceX to fall by as much as 50% by year-end and thinks both companies should trade near $30 a share, an 80% drop for SpaceX.

“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble told Business Insider.

Consensus estimates compiled by Tikr.com show analysts tracking SpaceX stock forecast revenue to increase from $44.63 billion in 2026 to $388 billion in 2030.

The space-tech giant is projected to report a cumulative free cash outflow of roughly $280 billion through 2030.

More SpaceX:

• Morgan Stanley doubles down on SpaceX stock for investors
• SpaceX analyst plots path to bold $100 billion claim
• JPMorgan resets SpaceX price target after earnings

It suggests the company will have to raise debt or equity capital to sustain its cash burn rates, which will dilute existing shareholder wealth.

Out of the 34 analysts covering SpaceX stock, 25 recommend “Buy”, six recommend “Hold”, and three recommend “Sell”.

The average SPCX stock price target is $228, which is 52% above the current price.

Despite his own $10 to $30 estimate, Galloway said he would not actually short SpaceX. Musk’s ability to excite investors with a new project, he joked, could send the stock higher again “regardless of its fundamentals.”

“I wouldn’t get near this thing,” Galloway said, adding it could turn into a meme stock if Musk announces something like quantum computing on the moon.

For now, the gap between what Galloway sees on paper and what the market is paying remains enormous.

Investors betting on SpaceX are, in effect, betting that Musk’s next act outruns the balance sheet.

Related: Elon Musk drops stunning SpaceX forecast

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This story was originally published September 6, 2026 at 10:33 AM.