There’s good news for this hurricane season. Here’s the latest prediction

It’s approaching the peak of hurricane season for South Florida, but the Atlantic is dead quiet.

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This great news is likely to continue, according to an updated hurricane season prediction released Wednesday by Colorado State University. Forecasters at CSU dropped their predicted number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from the pre-season prediction in April.

The new numbers: nine total named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, a Category 3 or stronger.

That leaves just seven storms left for the season, which ends Nov. 30, if the prediction holds true. So far this year we’ve seen Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha. Neither were particularly strong.

If CSU’s numbers bear out, this could be one of the quietest hurricane seasons in decades, experts say.

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“Caveat: There will still be systems,” posted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for WFLA in Tampa, on X. “This season close to home storms are favored, so we always need to be prepared regardless.”

The hush over the Atlantic is due to a worldwide weather phenomenon known as El Niño, which is linked with more storm shear over the Atlantic that stamps out hurricane formation. It also cranks up the water temperature in the Atlantic, which has the unfortunate side effect of mass coral bleaching and death.

But in the climate fight between warm water (gas for hurricanes) and storm shear (brakes for hurricanes), forecasters believe that shear will win out and keep the Atlantic mostly quiet.

“Despite relatively hurricane-favorable Atlantic ocean temperature conditions, we expect El Niño to dominate, leading to high shear & a below-normal season,” lead CSU meteorologist Philip Klotzbach posted on X.

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